November 2, 2024

College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Ohio State the new No. 4?

As we have for the past several weeks, including last week for the first College Football Playoff Rankings release, we are predicting what the top 25 will look like Tuesday night. Here, we try to emphasize the same criteria the committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head record matters; sometimes, it doesn’t. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn’t. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn’t. Sometimes it’s about game control — whatever that is — or recency bias or … ah, you get the idea. What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process that the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after. With all of that in mind, here is how I think the top 25 will look this week. Note: Predictions in this post are based only on results to this point, so they do not reflect the final forecast for the playoff, which can be found here. 1. Alabama Crimson Tide (Last week: 1): The Crimson Tide aren’t unbeatable, but they look more…

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